# ADVERSARY-02 Part 2 (2021-2024): Section 7 scoring table, v2 (Manus added)

Generated by 51_score.py / 52_render.py on the passes listed in input_validation.csv. Thresholds are the SIGNED Section 7 values (manifest 766a1cbd...). FC5: NOT TRIGGERED is the PASS-equivalent.

## Headline: verdict under each pool

| Item | What | (a) primary 7 runs | (b) secondary +Grok | (c) primary w/o Perplexity | (d) primary w/o Manus | pools disagree | per-scorer agreement (7 primary runs) | Section 7 persistence baseline passes? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Evergrande loses viability | PASS | PASS | PASS | PASS | no | 4 pass / 0 fail / 3 indet (of 7) | Yes |
| P2 | Evergrande node structure holds | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | no | 0 pass / 5 fail / 2 indet (of 7) | Yes |
| P3 | Huawei reorganises (Shield weakest) | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | no | 0 pass / 6 fail / 1 indet (of 7) | Yes |
| P4 | BYD preserves | PASS | PASS | PASS | PASS | no | 6 pass / 0 fail / 1 indet (of 7) | Yes |
| P5 | CATL preserves, high Bond | PASS | PASS | PASS | PASS | no | 6 pass / 0 fail / 1 indet (of 7) | Yes |
| P6 | Finance/Risk floor, 4 primaries (>=14/16) | FAIL | PASS | FAIL | PASS | YES | 0 pass / 5 fail / 2 indet (of 7) | Yes |
| P7 | Bond separates Evergrande | FAIL | PASS | FAIL | FAIL | YES | 2 pass / 2 fail / 3 indet (of 7) | Yes |
| P8 | FC3-style ratio stays wide | FAIL | PASS | FAIL | FAIL | YES | 2 pass / 5 fail / 0 indet (of 7) | Yes |
| P9 | Huawei and SMIC converge | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | no | 0 pass / 6 fail / 1 indet (of 7) | Yes |
| P10 | Longfor most divergent comparator | PASS | PASS | PASS | PASS | no | 7 pass / 0 fail / 0 indet (of 7) | Yes |
| P11 | Vanke and Longfor preserve | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | no | 0 pass / 6 fail / 1 indet (of 7) | Yes |
| P12 | Coupling does not transmit (H3 against) | PASS | PASS | PASS | PASS | no | 7 pass / 0 fail / 0 indet (of 7) | n/a |
| C1 | Contrast: China M >= threshold | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | no | 0 pass / 7 fail / 0 indet (of 7) | FAIL |
| C2 | Contrast: Huawei slide reverses | PASS | PASS | PASS | PASS | no | 6 pass / 0 fail / 1 indet (of 7) | FAIL |
| C3 | Contrast: BYD S rises while M holds | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | no | 0 pass / 6 fail / 1 indet (of 7) | FAIL |
| FC5 | Failure Condition 5 (>=3 of P1,P3,P4,P5 fail, primary pool) | NOT TRIGGERED | NOT TRIGGERED | NOT TRIGGERED | NOT TRIGGERED | no | 6 pass / 0 fail / 1 indet (of 7) | n/a |

## Per-scorer verdicts (primary thresholds, each scorer-run on its own cells; P pass, F fail, I indeterminate)

| Item | Claude_agent | Codex | Kimi | Gemini | Claude_chat | Perplexity_unconf | Manus | Grok |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | I | I | P | P | I | P | P | P |
| P2 | F | I | F | F | I | F | F | F |
| P3 | F | I | F | F | F | F | F | P |
| P4 | P | I | P | P | P | P | P | P |
| P5 | P | I | P | P | P | P | P | P |
| P6 | I | I | F | F | F | F | F | F |
| P7 | I | I | P | F | I | P | F | F |
| P8 | F | P | F | P | F | F | F | F |
| P9 | F | I | F | F | F | F | F | F |
| P10 | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P |
| P11 | F | I | F | F | F | F | F | F |
| P12 | P | P | P | P | P | P | P | P |
| C1 | F | F | F | F | F | F | F | F |
| C2 | P | I | P | P | P | P | P | P |
| C3 | F | I | F | F | F | F | F | F |
| FC5 | NT | I | NT | NT | NT | NT | NT | NT |

## Key metrics (pool a / b / c / d)

**P1**  
- a: `{"M2021_24": [-3.214, -4.15, -5.419, -6.314], "yr_limit": 5.0, "M2024_limit": 4.0}`
- b: `{"M2021_24": [-3.078, -4.192, -5.289, -6.03], "yr_limit": 5.5, "M2024_limit": 4.5}`
- c: `{"M2021_24": [-2.925, -3.805, -5.092, -6.049], "yr_limit": 5.0, "M2024_limit": 4.0}`
- d: `{"M2021_24": [-3.241, -4.201, -5.417, -6.319], "yr_limit": 5.0, "M2024_limit": 4.0}`
**P2**  
- a: `{"years_all_four": 1, "detail": ["2021:a1b1c1d1(St=-6.24,Sh=-4.51,low=Stewards)", "2022:a1b1c0d1(St=-6.59,Sh=-5.09,low=Stewards)", "2023:a1b1c0d1(St=-7.24,Sh=-6.57,low=Stewards)", "2024:a0b0c0d1(St=-7.32,Sh=-6.09,low=Archive)"], "d_limit": 2.3}`
- b: `{"years_all_four": 1, "detail": ["2021:a1b1c1d1(St=-6.21,Sh=-4.36,low=Stewards)", "2022:a1b1c0d1(St=-6.64,Sh=-5.25,low=Stewards)", "2023:a1b1c0d1(St=-7.21,Sh=-6.54,low=Stewards)", "2024:a1b1c0d1(St=-7.28,Sh=-6.12,low=Stewards)"], "d_limit": 3.0}`
- c: `{"years_all_four": 2, "detail": ["2021:a1b1c1d1(St=-5.95,Sh=-4.26,low=Stewards)", "2022:a1b1c0d1(St=-6.35,Sh=-4.61,low=Stewards)", "2023:a1b1c1d1(St=-7.12,Sh=-6.33,low=Stewards)", "2024:a0b1c0d1(St=-7.21,Sh=-5.77,low=Archive)"], "d_limit": 2.3}`
- d: `{"years_all_four": 1, "detail": ["2021:a1b1c1d1(St=-6.42,Sh=-4.46,low=Stewards)", "2022:a1b1c0d1(St=-6.82,Sh=-5.08,low=Stewards)", "2023:a1b1c0d1(St=-7.35,Sh=-6.57,low=Stewards)", "2024:a1b1c0d1(St=-7.34,Sh=-5.87,low=Stewards)"], "d_limit": 2.3}`
**P3**  
- a: `{"M2021_24": [8.113, 8.247, 10.851, 11.313], "hi": 9.15, "info_Shield_lowest_years": 2, "info_lowest_by_year": ["Flow", "Flow", "Shield", "Shield"]}`
- b: `{"M2021_24": [7.902, 7.971, 10.39, 10.792], "hi": 9.14, "info_Shield_lowest_years": 2, "info_lowest_by_year": ["Flow", "Flow", "Shield", "Shield"]}`
- c: `{"M2021_24": [7.756, 7.804, 10.355, 10.834], "hi": 9.15, "info_Shield_lowest_years": 2, "info_lowest_by_year": ["Flow", "Flow", "Shield", "Shield"]}`
- d: `{"M2021_24": [8.271, 8.552, 11.166, 11.666], "hi": 9.15, "info_Shield_lowest_years": 2, "info_lowest_by_year": ["Flow", "Flow", "Shield", "Shield"]}`
**P4**  
- a: `{"M2021_24": [10.034, 11.432, 11.752, 11.467], "M2024_min": 7.2}`
- b: `{"M2021_24": [9.861, 11.26, 11.534, 11.291], "M2024_min": 7.5}`
- c: `{"M2021_24": [9.722, 11.062, 11.268, 10.893], "M2024_min": 7.2}`
- d: `{"M2021_24": [10.484, 11.852, 12.223, 11.986], "M2024_min": 7.2}`
**P5**  
- a: `{"M2021_24": [11.582, 11.6, 11.655, 11.76], "Bond2021_24": [37.98, 37.94, 38.81, 39.05], "lims": [8.0, 8.3, 23.1]}`
- b: `{"M2021_24": [11.383, 11.431, 11.48, 11.573], "Bond2021_24": [37.34, 37.41, 38.17, 38.38], "lims": [8.1, 8.55, 24.2]}`
- c: `{"M2021_24": [11.093, 11.067, 11.13, 11.256], "Bond2021_24": [36.03, 35.47, 36.16, 36.58], "lims": [8.0, 8.3, 23.1]}`
- d: `{"M2021_24": [12.085, 12.135, 12.175, 12.352], "Bond2021_24": [40.43, 40.64, 41.56, 42.05], "lims": [8.0, 8.3, 23.1]}`
**P6**  
- a: `{"satisfied": 13, "not_satisfied": 3, "unscorable": 0}`
- b: `{"satisfied": 14, "not_satisfied": 2, "unscorable": 0}`
- c: `{"satisfied": 12, "not_satisfied": 4, "unscorable": 0}`
- d: `{"satisfied": 14, "not_satisfied": 2, "unscorable": 0}`
**P7**  
- a: `{"gap2021_24": [22.07, 19.51, 13.56, 8.21], "lim": 10.0}`
- b: `{"gap2021_24": [20.72, 17.85, 12.93, 8.28], "lim": 8.0}`
- c: `{"gap2021_24": [21.46, 18.68, 13.58, 7.75], "lim": 10.0}`
- d: `{"gap2021_24": [22.88, 20.2, 13.8, 8.61], "lim": 10.0}`
**P8**  
- a: `{"ratio_vs_Vanke": 4.35, "ratio_vs_Longfor": 5.32, "VL_MAD": 0.761, "lim": 5.0}`
- b: `{"ratio_vs_Vanke": 4.13, "ratio_vs_Longfor": 5.12, "VL_MAD": 0.774, "lim": 3.5}`
- c: `{"ratio_vs_Vanke": 4.49, "ratio_vs_Longfor": 5.46, "VL_MAD": 0.705, "lim": 5.0}`
- d: `{"ratio_vs_Vanke": 4.36, "ratio_vs_Longfor": 5.32, "VL_MAD": 0.774, "lim": 5.0}`
**P9**  
- a: `{"gap2021_24": [0.129, 0.235, 3.3, 2.725]}`
- b: `{"gap2021_24": [0.003, 0.084, 3.129, 2.629]}`
- c: `{"gap2021_24": [0.325, 0.18, 2.91, 2.53]}`
- d: `{"gap2021_24": [0.235, 0.278, 3.267, 2.706]}`
**P10**  
- a: `{"MAD_Ev_Longfor": 4.05, "MAD_Ev_Vanke": 3.308}`
- b: `{"MAD_Ev_Longfor": 3.965, "MAD_Ev_Vanke": 3.197}`
- c: `{"MAD_Ev_Longfor": 3.851, "MAD_Ev_Vanke": 3.169}`
- d: `{"MAD_Ev_Longfor": 4.119, "MAD_Ev_Vanke": 3.374}`
**P11**  
- a: `{"Vanke": [8.907, 7.659, 4.469, 1.165], "Longfor": [10.74, 8.111, 7.084, 6.146]}`
- b: `{"Vanke": [8.532, 7.105, 4.314, 1.441], "Longfor": [10.515, 7.886, 7.003, 6.167]}`
- c: `{"Vanke": [8.771, 7.489, 4.616, 0.962], "Longfor": [10.491, 7.884, 6.888, 5.672]}`
- d: `{"Vanke": [9.171, 7.906, 4.548, 1.332], "Longfor": [10.907, 8.214, 7.223, 6.478]}`
**P12**  
- a: `{"event_scores": {"Property restraint 2016 (Evergrande)": 0, "Three Red Lines 2020 (Evergrande)": 0, "US Entity List May 2019 (Huawei)": 0, "NEV plan 2012 (BYD)": 0, "NEV plan 2020 (BYD)": 0, "NEV plan 2012 (CATL)": 0, "NEV plan 2020 (CATL)": 0, "US Entity List Dec 2020 (SMIC)": 0}, "max_score": 0, "max_upper_bound_incl_unscorable": 0}`
- b: `{"event_scores": {"Property restraint 2016 (Evergrande)": 0, "Three Red Lines 2020 (Evergrande)": 0, "US Entity List May 2019 (Huawei)": 0, "NEV plan 2012 (BYD)": 0, "NEV plan 2020 (BYD)": 0, "NEV plan 2012 (CATL)": 0, "NEV plan 2020 (CATL)": 0, "US Entity List Dec 2020 (SMIC)": 0}, "max_score": 0, "max_upper_bound_incl_unscorable": 0}`
- c: `{"event_scores": {"Property restraint 2016 (Evergrande)": 0, "Three Red Lines 2020 (Evergrande)": 0, "US Entity List May 2019 (Huawei)": 0, "NEV plan 2012 (BYD)": 0, "NEV plan 2020 (BYD)": 0, "NEV plan 2012 (CATL)": 0, "NEV plan 2020 (CATL)": 0, "US Entity List Dec 2020 (SMIC)": 0}, "max_score": 0, "max_upper_bound_incl_unscorable": 0}`
- d: `{"event_scores": {"Property restraint 2016 (Evergrande)": 0, "Three Red Lines 2020 (Evergrande)": 0, "US Entity List May 2019 (Huawei)": 0, "NEV plan 2012 (BYD)": 0, "NEV plan 2020 (BYD)": 0, "NEV plan 2012 (CATL)": 0, "NEV plan 2020 (CATL)": 0, "US Entity List Dec 2020 (SMIC)": 0}, "max_score": 0, "max_upper_bound_incl_unscorable": 0}`
**C1**  
- a: `{"M_China_2024": 7.355, "lim": 9.3}`
- b: `{"M_China_2024": 7.332, "lim": 9.18}`
- c: `{"M_China_2024": 7.165, "lim": 9.3}`
- d: `{"M_China_2024": 7.585, "lim": 9.3}`
**C2**  
- a: `{"M_Huawei_2024": 11.313, "lim": 7.39, "info_margin_version_ge": 8.67, "margin_pass": true}`
- b: `{"M_Huawei_2024": 10.792, "lim": 7.26, "info_margin_version_ge": null, "margin_pass": null}`
- c: `{"M_Huawei_2024": 10.834, "lim": 7.39, "info_margin_version_ge": 8.67, "margin_pass": true}`
- d: `{"M_Huawei_2024": 11.666, "lim": 7.39, "info_margin_version_ge": 8.67, "margin_pass": true}`
**C3**  
- a: `{"S_BYD_2024": 4.11, "M_BYD_2024": 11.467, "lims": [5.54, 7.2], "info_CraftHands_S": 4.332, "info_nodeS_lim": 5.48}`
- b: `{"S_BYD_2024": 4.024, "M_BYD_2024": 11.291, "lims": [5.15, 7.5], "info_CraftHands_S": 4.195, "info_nodeS_lim": 5.04}`
- c: `{"S_BYD_2024": 4.289, "M_BYD_2024": 10.893, "lims": [5.54, 7.2], "info_CraftHands_S": 4.583, "info_nodeS_lim": 5.48}`
- d: `{"S_BYD_2024": 4.005, "M_BYD_2024": 11.986, "lims": [5.54, 7.2], "info_CraftHands_S": 4.227, "info_nodeS_lim": 5.48}`
**FC5**  
- a: `{"fails_among_P1_P3_P4_P5": ["P3"]}`
- b: `{"fails_among_P1_P3_P4_P5": ["P3"]}`
- c: `{"fails_among_P1_P3_P4_P5": ["P3"]}`
- d: `{"fails_among_P1_P3_P4_P5": ["P3"]}`

## Sensitivity (primary pool, primary thresholds)

| Item | (a) base | s1_nmin1_for_5pass_runs | s2_Kimi_pass1_only | s3_Kimi_pass2_only | s4_P12_2021_diff_masked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | PASS | PASS | PASS | PASS |  |
| P2 | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL |  |
| P3 | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL |  |
| P4 | PASS | PASS | PASS | PASS |  |
| P5 | PASS | PASS | PASS | PASS |  |
| P6 | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL |  |
| P7 | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL |  |
| P8 | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL |  |
| P9 | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL |  |
| P10 | PASS | PASS | PASS | PASS |  |
| P11 | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL |  |
| P12 | PASS | PASS | PASS | PASS | PASS |
| C1 | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL |  |
| C2 | PASS | PASS | PASS | PASS |  |
| C3 | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL | FAIL |  |
| FC5 | NOT TRIGGERED | NOT TRIGGERED | NOT TRIGGERED | NOT TRIGGERED |  |