# US Legitimacy Crisis × CAMS Stress — Study Report

**Kari Freyr McKern · July 2026 · 30-year panel (1996–2025)**  
**Sources: Gallup / Pew × USA_cam5_1996_2026_cleaned.csv**  
**Companion: [Study 1 — Interest Burden](us_interest_burden_cams_study.md)**

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## 1. Design

Test variable pair:
- **Gallup Average Institutional Confidence** — % with "great deal/quite a lot" of confidence in 14 major institutions (averaged)
- **Pew Federal Government Trust** — % saying they trust the government in Washington "just about always" or "most of the time"

Same three-part test as Study 1:
1. Contemporaneous Pearson correlations with CAMS annual panel variables
2. Lead-lag analysis (lags −3 to +3): does CAMS Stress lead legitimacy collapse, or follow it?
3. AR(1) baseline vs CAMS-augmented models; walk-forward OOS test (train ≤2020, test 2021–2025)

Panel: 30 year-observations, 1996–2025.

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## 2. The Legitimacy Series

| Year | Gallup % | Pew % | CAMS Mean Stress | Bond Strength |
|------|----------|-------|-----------------|---------------|
| 1996 | 39 | 28 | 3.5 | 31.6 |
| 2000 | 41 | 44 | 5.3 | 22.7 |
| 2004 | 43 | 44 | 6.1 | 21.3 |
| 2008 | 32 | 27 | 8.2 | 14.0 |
| 2012 | 32 | 29 | 5.7 | 19.4 |
| 2016 | 31 | 19 | 6.7 | 17.4 |
| 2020 | 36 | 20 | **9.3** | **11.0** |
| 2022 | 27 | 20 | 6.9 | 16.9 |
| 2023 | 26 | 16 | 6.1 | 21.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | 22 | 6.5 | 19.5 |
| 2025 | 28 | **9** | 7.9 | 13.4 |

The 2020 CAMS Stress spike (9.28, highest in the panel) preceded the 2022–2023 trust trough (Gallup 27–26, Pew 20–16) by 2–3 years. The 2025 Pew reading (9%) is the lowest in 67 years of Pew measurement.

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## 3. Contemporaneous Correlations

### Gallup Institutional Confidence

| Variable | r | p | Significant? |
|----------|---|---|-------------|
| Archive Node Value | +0.624 | 0.000 | *** |
| Helm Node Value | +0.606 | 0.000 | *** |
| Mean Capacity | +0.583 | 0.001 | ** |
| Mean Node Value | +0.557 | 0.001 | ** |
| Mean Bond Strength | +0.555 | 0.001 | ** |
| Archive Stress | −0.513 | 0.004 | ** |
| Mean Stress | −0.408 | 0.025 | * |
| Shield Node Value | +0.406 | 0.026 | * |
| Reactivity Ratio | −0.248 | 0.187 | — |
| Cognitive Gap | +0.046 | 0.810 | — |

### Pew Federal Trust

| Variable | r | p | Significant? |
|----------|---|---|-------------|
| Archive Node Value | +0.620 | 0.000 | *** |
| Helm Node Value | +0.612 | 0.000 | *** |
| Mean Node Value | +0.504 | 0.005 | ** |
| Mean Capacity | +0.494 | 0.006 | ** |
| Mean Bond Strength | +0.490 | 0.006 | ** |
| Archive Stress | −0.477 | 0.008 | ** |
| Shield Node Value | +0.397 | 0.030 | * |
| Stress Dispersion | −0.325 | 0.080 | . |
| Mean Stress | −0.320 | 0.085 | . |
| Cognitive Gap | +0.167 | 0.378 | — |

**Key finding:** Archive Node Value and Helm Node Value are the strongest contemporaneous correlates of institutional trust (r ≈ +0.61 for both). The fixation/institutional-memory node (Archive) and the executive governance node (Helm) together explain most of the trust variance. This is structural, not transient.

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## 4. Lead-Lag Analysis — The Critical Test

Lag convention: positive lag = CAMS at year t predicts target at t+lag (CAMS leads).

### Gallup Confidence — Lead-Lag

| Variable | lag−3 | lag−2 | lag−1 | lag 0 | lag+1 | lag+2 | lag+3 | Direction |
|----------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-----------|
| Mean Stress | −0.216 | −0.304 | −0.390* | −0.408* | −0.499* | −0.636* | **−0.686*** | CAMS Leads |
| Mean Bond Strength | +0.486* | +0.512* | +0.531* | +0.555* | +0.631* | +0.759* | **+0.796*** | CAMS Leads |
| Mean Node Value | +0.428* | +0.501* | +0.556* | +0.557* | +0.636* | +0.766* | **+0.795*** | CAMS Leads |
| Archive Node Value | +0.601* | +0.612* | +0.631* | +0.624* | +0.657* | +0.790* | **+0.803*** | CAMS Leads |
| Archive Stress | −0.493* | −0.488* | −0.526* | −0.513* | −0.548* | −0.687* | **−0.720*** | CAMS Leads |
| Reactivity Ratio | +0.031 | −0.169 | −0.243 | −0.248 | −0.266 | −0.268 | −0.195 | Flat |
| Cognitive Gap | +0.193 | +0.045 | +0.000 | +0.046 | +0.002 | −0.013 | +0.017 | No signal |

### Pew Federal Trust — Lead-Lag

| Variable | lag−3 | lag−2 | lag−1 | lag 0 | lag+1 | lag+2 | lag+3 | Direction |
|----------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-----------|
| Mean Stress | −0.180 | −0.251 | −0.287 | −0.320. | −0.417* | −0.560* | **−0.622*** | CAMS Leads |
| Mean Bond Strength | +0.374. | +0.471* | +0.450* | +0.490* | +0.551* | +0.705* | **+0.739*** | CAMS Leads |
| Archive Node Value | +0.512* | +0.591* | +0.587* | +0.620* | +0.625* | +0.746* | +0.692* | CAMS Leads |
| Archive Stress | −0.425* | −0.486* | −0.451* | −0.477* | −0.519* | −0.651* | **−0.597*** | CAMS Leads |

**Critical result:** Every primary CAMS variable shows a lead-lag profile where the correlation *strengthens* as lag increases from 0 to +3. This is the **exact opposite** of the IPR study pattern (where Bond Strength peaked at lag −3, meaning fiscal led CAMS). The oligarchic-capture mechanism routes through legitimacy, not directly through fiscal variables.

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## 5. Predictive Models

### Gallup Confidence — 1-Year Ahead OOS (train ≤2020, test 2021–2025)

| Model | R² (in-sample) | OOS RMSE | vs AR(1) |
|-------|---------------|----------|---------|
| AR(1) baseline | 0.779 | 2.805 | — |
| AR(1) + Mean Stress | 0.814 | 2.583 | **−0.222** |
| AR(1) + Archive Stress | 0.798 | 2.667 | **−0.138** |
| AR(1) + Mean Node Value | 0.822 | 2.671 | **−0.134** |
| AR(1) + Archive Node Value | 0.807 | 2.737 | **−0.068** |
| AR(1) + Bond Strength | 0.821 | 2.792 | −0.013 |
| AR(1) + Reactivity Ratio | 0.782 | 2.791 | −0.014 |

### Pew Federal Trust — 1-Year Ahead OOS

| Model | R² (in-sample) | OOS RMSE | vs AR(1) |
|-------|---------------|----------|---------|
| AR(1) baseline | 0.692 | 8.168 | — |
| AR(1) + Archive Stress | 0.716 | 7.386 | **−0.782** |
| AR(1) + Archive Node Value | 0.718 | 7.419 | **−0.749** |
| AR(1) + Mean Stress | 0.734 | 7.642 | **−0.526** |
| AR(1) + Mean Node Value | 0.731 | 7.674 | **−0.494** |
| AR(1) + Bond Strength | 0.735 | 7.848 | **−0.320** |
| AR(1) + Reactivity Ratio | 0.703 | 8.322 | +0.154 |

**OOS interpretation:** In Study 1 (fiscal), adding Mean Stress worsened OOS RMSE by +0.031. Here it *improves* Gallup prediction by −0.222 (−7.9%) and Pew prediction by −0.526 (−6.4%). Archive Stress is the single best Pew augmentation (−0.782, −9.6%). The asymmetry is the cleanest summary of the mechanism.

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## 6. The Asymmetric Mechanism

| | Study 1: Interest Burden | Study 2: Legitimacy |
|---|---|---|
| Direction | Fiscal → CAMS | CAMS → Legitimacy |
| Key lag | −3 (fiscal leads) | +2 to +3 (CAMS leads) |
| Stress predictor | Worsens OOS | Improves OOS |
| Bond Strength | Strong positive lead | Strong positive lead |
| Mechanism | System absorbs fiscal load | Trust erodes from structural stress |

The implied sequence: structural stress accumulates in CAMS nodes (Archive, Helm) → public trust erodes 2–3 years later → debt burden becomes politically unsustainable only when institutions have lost public authority.

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## 7. Verdict

The oligarchic-capture hypothesis passes its first critical falsification test. CAMS Stress **leads** legitimacy decline by 2–3 years. The mechanism is not fiscal — it operates through the legitimacy channel. The 2025 CAMS readings (Stress 7.93, Archive V 1.5) replicate the structural signature of 2020 (Stress 9.28, Archive V 1.8). The 3-year-lag model implies continued legitimacy pressure in 2026–2028.

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## 8. Files

- Panel CSV: `analysis/us_legitimacy_cams_panel.csv` (30 rows × 16 columns)
- HTML report: `analysis/us_legitimacy_cams_study.html`
- This document: `analysis/us_legitimacy_cams_study.md`