Published Research Artefacts — CAMS Analysis & Visualisations
CAMS is a thermometer for institutional health — a state monitor, diagnostic grammar, and uncertainty sensor — not a crystal ball. Eight parts: Helm, Shield, Lore, Stewards, Craft, Hands, Archive, Flow. The biggest win from giving ground was seeing the grammar travel: nations, firms, cities. The twelve 2026–2028 predictions are locked and still unscored. Status note: What CAMS is claiming in public.
Measurement interfaces and protocols — published, not certificates of external validation. Trajectories and bond networks remain illustrative where the formalism says so.
Score France 2000 to 2026 yearlyScore USA 1850 to 1865 yearly
Toolbeta CAMS Network Explorer — Institutional Weather
Live in-browser 8-node × 4-metric CAMS/JUNO network, integrated with bond-weighted spring physics (nodes cluster by coupling strength, stress-jittered). Scenario presets, a t=0→20 trajectory scrubber, node-vs-node comparison, criticality ranking, and a manual intervention panel. Boundary-clamped to the canonical 0–10 scale after three unbounded-growth bugs were found and fixed in the underlying Python skeleton — the interior dynamics are still exploratory (no real bond matrix calibrated yet), so treat trajectories as illustrative, not predictive.
Bond_Strength_Calc · World Bank T1 (r=−0.128) and Shield × V-Dem T3c reproduce to published precision · SIPRI-real +0.251 and the Australia T3a pilot flagged as unrecovered source files, not alignment reversals · λ₂ / SBD unaffected · Markdown
Studynew Operator Portability in CAMS — Synthesis & Verification Trail Kari Freyr McKern · July 2026 · 9-firm corporate panel + Denmark/France national panels · canonical operators structurally portable, parametrically non-invariant, confirmed by two independent computational audits · companion η_soil / Norway paper explicitly paused pending rework · full audit trail + source PDFs
Studynew PR-GAP-2: CAMS as a Leading Indicator of Rupture Kari Freyr McKern · July 2026 · 44 societies · 4,541 society-years, 1900–2025 · 126 coups/crises/regime transitions split into deficit crises vs coordination transitions · leave-one-country-out AUC 0.740 for deficit crises · South Africa, Venezuela & USA all at historical stress maxima · 6-chart interactive report + data
Papernew PR-GAP-2: Structural Coordination and Rupture Morphology — Full Paper Kari Freyr McKern · August 2026 draft · full academic paper with Methods/Results/Discussion · adds Robson Gauge (η_soil) cultural-grounding path-type results across the same 44-society panel — Japan & Russia now classed Ruptured, France Failed Transplant · cross-system parsimony evidence from preliminary CAMCORP & CAMCITIESM5 applications (appendices) · 4 figures + references
Studynew US Legitimacy Crisis × CAMS Stress — Study 2 Kari Freyr McKern · July 2026 · 30-year panel, 1996–2025 · CAMS Stress leads Gallup/Pew trust collapse by 2–3 years — the opposite of the fiscal (Study 1) finding · 5-chart interactive report + data
Reportnew What Actually Makes a Civilisation Work Kari Freyr McKern · July 2026 · Six findings from scoring 238 societies · fixation capacity (Archive) r=0.976 with system health · four civilisation types as strategies not a ladder · geography penalty debunked: historical steppe empires score identical to maritime (6.12 vs 6.18) · PDF
Analysisnew Kimi K3, OpenAI Losses, and the AI Coordination Crisis Kari Freyr McKern · July 2026 · CAMS coordination-diagnostic lens on four synchronised signals: Kimi K3 "threat" framing as compensatory enemy construction · OpenAI $38.5B net loss as pre-state-coupling move · PJM capacity prices +$9.3B attributed to data centres → ratepayer stress propagation · 45% S&P500 AI concentration as leading fragility indicator
Analysisnew Modern Slavery & Structural Path Dependencies — CAMS–GSI Cross-Reference Analysis, 2023 Kari Freyr · July 2026 · Global Slavery Index 2023 × JUNO v1.2-Final (36 societies) + CAMNATIONS5 African scoring (6 nations) · Archive & Stewards are the critical nodes · four-path taxonomy (Rights-Institutional, Coercive-Institutional, Fragmentation, Collapse) · Archive V>8 AND Hands V<3 detection rule
Reportnew When a Metaphor Earns Its Keep — Adversarial Validation of the Paladin Rendering Layer over JUNO Kari Freyr McKern · 20 July 2026 · 4,033 complete society-years (32,361 node-years) + 3,002-society-year blind corpus · three headline renderings are relabelled extrema · dream–energy alignment non-redundant & stable but non-predictive (AUC ≈ 0.48) · locked reporting protocol
Reportnew Does a Society Think and Feel? — Testing the CAMS5 Distributed-Cognition Thesis Kari Freyr McKern · 19 July 2026 · 229 society-years, Australia 1875–2026 & Argentina 1950–2026 · 5,000-draw circular-shift nulls, expanding-window forecasts · emotional core (Capacity−Stress) empirically solid, cognitive core (Abstraction×Coherence) not yet load-bearing
Indexnew Research — Papers & Preprints Hub Browse the full working-papers index: preprints, data tools, and empirical analyses from the Neural Nations Project, in one place
Papernew CAMS-CAN: Epistemological Position and Empirical Validation Kari McKern & GPT authors · July 2026 · Pre-registered calibration test · USA Civil War 1860–1865 · GPT-5 + Gemini-3.1-Pro blind ensemble · 8/8 node predictions passed · morphological coherence achieved
Papernew United States, 1900–2026: A Structural Reading of a System in Freeze/Collapse Kari McKern & GPT Authors · July 2026 · CAMS-CAN National Diagnostic · 208 node-years, 5-agent ensemble · Hands-Bottleneck morphology, 96% chronic floor · V̄ 3.55, S̄ 7.93 in 2026 · structural analysis + poetic soul reading
Reportnew Netherlands CAMS v1.2 — A Critically Contextualised Analysis Kari Freyr McKern · August 2026 · 176 complete annual observations, 1850–2025 (eight nodes) · viability recomputed from raw fields · 1944 viability trough · long-run high Archive & Flow, historically low Hands · low 2025 Helm / negative Helm sigma · mythopoetic paladin overlay · critical reflection on the Dutch delta, polder model & recent institutional pressure · self-contained HTML, figures embedded
Papernew CAMS v1.1 Blind Test — Named Scientific Assessment Kari Freyr McKern · 1 July 2026 · JUNO experiment reveal · 8 societies unmasked: Germany, Norway, Russia, UK, Chile, Poland, Argentina, Australia · 1,201 society-years · 232 inflection points · core formulas validated at machine precision
Papernew Three Great-Power Trajectories Against Their Own Historical Attractors Kari Freyr McKern · June 2026 · China z = +1.37 · Russia z = +0.28 · USA z = −2.73 · Bloc-coordination hypothesis not supported · US viability and coupling both outside twentieth-century envelope · Lore node collapse as endogenous legitimacy crisis · canonical BS data released
Papernew CAMS v1.0.1 — Instrument Test Battery Kari Freyr McKern · June 2026 · Six-part validation: corpus audit, formalism repair, vantage-point bias control, pre-registered 2027–2028 predictions · 2,532 society-years · 25 entities
Papernew Graph-Theoretic Diagnosis of Societal Collapse: CAMS Validation Across 18 Societies Kari Freyr McKern · 10 June 2026 · PCA across 7,880 node-year obs · PC1 = 72.7% variance · 17 crisis fingerprints matched · USA ρ = 0.97, UK ρ = 1.00 · 12 falsifiable predictions registered · HTML
Paper CAMS–CAN Master Reference v1.0 Kari Freyr McKern · April 2026 · Early planning draft (v1.0-RC1) · node/formula groundwork, not the current classifier spec — superseded by JUNO v1.2-Final · PDF
Notebooknew CAMS Framework — Collected Research & Essays Kari Freyr McKern · NotebookLM · Comprehensive collection of drafts, research papers, and geopolitical essays centred on the CAMS framework — societies as thermodynamic, evolutionary coordination systems
Projectnew Epiphenomenon@Trove — Australian Threat Discourse 125 years · Trove + Hansard · Shield Hypertrophy Index · five-scorer ensemble · three articles + data explorer
Papernew The Anxiety Machine — Epiphenomenon@Trove Kari Freyr McKern · 17 May 2026 · v3 revised · CAMNations5 ensemble 1875–2026 · three-regime threat-discourse model · Hands node grievance lead confirmed · Full report v3 (PDF)
Essay Seriesnew The Borrowed Nation Kari Freyr McKern · August 2026 · Five essays on 175 years of Australian strategic dependency · colonial node architecture, foreign-owned Stewards, the Anxiety Machine's Shield Hypertrophy findings, the Flow Paradox, and a counterfactual history of the 2014 China partnership
Papernew Ensemble Validation — The Wright Thesis: Confirmed with Qualifications Kari Freyr McKern · May 2026 · Variance reduction = 1/√N exactly · SNR improves √5× · ensemble mean is optimal · uncertainty measures epistemic ambiguity, not noise · Germany & USA 1880–2026 · Contestation Index · κ-uncertainty bounds · Full paper (PDF)
Papernew CAMCORP5 Ensemble Analysis — Corporate CAMS Assessment 2026 Kari Freyr McKern · 2026 Working Paper · Five-scorer ensemble analysis of Apple, Cargill, Citigroup, Coherent, GE Aerospace & Goldman Sachs · 2000–2026 · PDF
Papernew Epiphenomenon@Trove — Falsification Results v5 Kari Freyr McKern · Formal falsification testing for the Epiphenomenon@Trove study · PDF
Papernew Epiphenomenon@Trove — Final Summary Report Kari Freyr McKern · Complete summary of the Epiphenomenon@Trove experiment — findings, methodology, and conclusions · PDF
Papernew Epiphenomenon@Trove — Companion II: The Cradle and the State Kari Freyr McKern · June 2026 · Fertility discourse, institutional health & the CAMS signal · Australia 1900–2025 · Hands + Archive nexus · three-regime typology extended to demographic domain · PDF
Papernew Human Societies as Complex Adaptive Meta-Systems: Introducing the CAMS Framework Kari Freyr McKern · April 2026 · Five longitudinal datasets · Six falsification criteria · PDF
Papernew A Functional Taxonomy of Human Social Organisation Kari Freyr McKern · May 2026 · Coordination problems, geography & the eight-node architecture · 229 polities · PDF
Papernew A Functional Taxonomy of Human Social Organisation Kari Freyr McKern · May 2026 · Coordination problems, geography & the eight-node architecture · 229 polities · HTML
Papernew Operational Pressure and Symbolic Integration: A Dyadic Scalar for Civilisational Coordination Diagnosis Kari Freyr McKern · CAMS v3.2-R Working Paper v1.1 · May 2026 · Dyad fields 𝒫(t), 𝒴(t), risk index ℛ(t) · Latium Vetus 460 BCE–2010 CE · sensitivity-tested · six falsification criteria
Datanew Civilisation Typing — Open Datasets 45 series · 38 societies · 39,351 records — the CAMS data behind the functional taxonomy · free download
Papernew CAMS and the Extended Evolutionary Synthesis Kari Freyr McKern · April 2026 · Thermodynamically motivated coordination formalism · Phase-space diagnostics · PDF
Papernew Entropy Flows and Collapse Signatures Kari Freyr McKern · May 2026 · Germany 1910–1930, Late Rome 380–450 CE & UK control · Stewards Bond floor breach as early warning · PDF
Paper Why CAMS Is Not Just Another Macro Model
Papernew Coupled Cattle, Tested Kari Freyr McKern · June 2026 · Simulation report on the stampede-as-phase-transition claim · Explosive Kuramoto hysteresis + branching-process contagion · conditional support, open code & data
Paper The Architecture of Civilisation Kari McKern — eight nodes, four metrics, social entropy · Kindle eBook
Papernew The Scale Invariance Experiment Five blinded CAMS time-series — blind inference challenge, download CSVs
Papernew History Doesn't Repeat — It Rhymes A Theory of Societal Pattern, Coordination, and Collapse · Kari Freyr McKern · April 2026
Paper Why Eight Nodes? A Rate-Separation and Coupling Argument Draft — March 2026
Paper Cross-LLM Structural Concordance in CAMS Datasets Reproducible Coordination Signatures Across Independent AI Assessors
Paper The Same Physics, Different Instruments: Where Thermoeconomics Meets CAMS Convergent validation from independent starting points
Historynew CAMS Foundational Conversations — Full Text Primary source dialogues behind the framework's development
Historynew The CAMS Project: A History from the Conversation Record Kari McKern — April 2026 · Full report
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Exploratory working documents, Claude artifacts, and comparative analyses. Produced during active research — not peer-reviewed. Kept here as a public working archive.