Published Research Artefacts — CAMS Analysis & Visualisations
Score France 2000 to 2026 yearlyScore USA 1850 to 1865 yearly
Toolbeta CAMS Network Explorer — Institutional Weather
Live in-browser 8-node × 4-metric CAMS/JUNO network, integrated with bond-weighted spring physics (nodes cluster by coupling strength, stress-jittered). Scenario presets, a t=0→20 trajectory scrubber, node-vs-node comparison, criticality ranking, and a manual intervention panel. Boundary-clamped to the canonical 0–10 scale after three unbounded-growth bugs were found and fixed in the underlying Python skeleton — the interior dynamics are still exploratory (no real bond matrix calibrated yet), so treat trajectories as illustrative, not predictive.
Bond_Strength_Calc · World Bank T1 (r=−0.128) and Shield × V-Dem T3c reproduce to published precision · SIPRI-real +0.251 and the Australia T3a pilot flagged as unrecovered source files, not alignment reversals · λ₂ / SBD unaffected · Markdown
Studynew Operator Portability in CAMS — Synthesis & Verification Trail Kari Freyr McKern · July 2026 · 9-firm corporate panel + Denmark/France national panels · canonical operators structurally portable, parametrically non-invariant, confirmed by two independent computational audits · companion η_soil / Norway paper explicitly paused pending rework · full audit trail + source PDFs
Studynew PR-GAP-2: CAMS as a Leading Indicator of Rupture Kari Freyr McKern · July 2026 · 44 societies · 4,541 society-years, 1900–2025 · 126 coups/crises/regime transitions split into deficit crises vs coordination transitions · leave-one-country-out AUC 0.740 for deficit crises · South Africa, Venezuela & USA all at historical stress maxima · 6-chart interactive report + data
Papernew PR-GAP-2: Structural Coordination and Rupture Morphology — Full Paper Kari Freyr McKern · August 2026 draft · full academic paper with Methods/Results/Discussion · adds Robson Gauge (η_soil) cultural-grounding path-type results across the same 44-society panel — Japan & Russia now classed Ruptured, France Failed Transplant · cross-system parsimony evidence from preliminary CAMCORP & CAMCITIESM5 applications (appendices) · 4 figures + references
Studynew US Legitimacy Crisis × CAMS Stress — Study 2 Kari Freyr McKern · July 2026 · 30-year panel, 1996–2025 · CAMS Stress leads Gallup/Pew trust collapse by 2–3 years — the opposite of the fiscal (Study 1) finding · 5-chart interactive report + data
Reportnew What Actually Makes a Civilisation Work Kari Freyr McKern · July 2026 · Six findings from scoring 238 societies · fixation capacity (Archive) r=0.976 with system health · four civilisation types as strategies not a ladder · geography penalty debunked: historical steppe empires score identical to maritime (6.12 vs 6.18) · PDF
Analysisnew Kimi K3, OpenAI Losses, and the AI Coordination Crisis Kari Freyr McKern · July 2026 · CAMS coordination-diagnostic lens on four synchronised signals: Kimi K3 "threat" framing as compensatory enemy construction · OpenAI $38.5B net loss as pre-state-coupling move · PJM capacity prices +$9.3B attributed to data centres → ratepayer stress propagation · 45% S&P500 AI concentration as leading fragility indicator
Analysisnew Modern Slavery & Structural Path Dependencies — CAMS–GSI Cross-Reference Analysis, 2023 Kari Freyr · July 2026 · Global Slavery Index 2023 × JUNO v1.2-Final (36 societies) + CAMNATIONS5 African scoring (6 nations) · Archive & Stewards are the critical nodes · four-path taxonomy (Rights-Institutional, Coercive-Institutional, Fragmentation, Collapse) · Archive V>8 AND Hands V<3 detection rule
Reportnew When a Metaphor Earns Its Keep — Adversarial Validation of the Paladin Rendering Layer over JUNO Kari Freyr McKern · 20 July 2026 · 4,033 complete society-years (32,361 node-years) + 3,002-society-year blind corpus · three headline renderings are relabelled extrema · dream–energy alignment non-redundant & stable but non-predictive (AUC ≈ 0.48) · locked reporting protocol
Reportnew Does a Society Think and Feel? — Testing the CAMS5 Distributed-Cognition Thesis Kari Freyr McKern · 19 July 2026 · 229 society-years, Australia 1875–2026 & Argentina 1950–2026 · 5,000-draw circular-shift nulls, expanding-window forecasts · emotional core (Capacity−Stress) empirically solid, cognitive core (Abstraction×Coherence) not yet load-bearing
Indexnew Research — Papers & Preprints Hub Browse the full working-papers index: preprints, data tools, and empirical analyses from the Neural Nations Project, in one place
Papernew CAMS-CAN: Epistemological Position and Empirical Validation Kari McKern & GPT authors · July 2026 · Pre-registered calibration test · USA Civil War 1860–1865 · GPT-5 + Gemini-3.1-Pro blind ensemble · 8/8 node predictions passed · morphological coherence achieved
Papernew United States, 1900–2026: A Structural Reading of a System in Freeze/Collapse Kari McKern & GPT Authors · July 2026 · CAMS-CAN National Diagnostic · 208 node-years, 5-agent ensemble · Hands-Bottleneck morphology, 96% chronic floor · V̄ 3.55, S̄ 7.93 in 2026 · structural analysis + poetic soul reading
Reportnew Netherlands CAMS v1.2 — A Critically Contextualised Analysis Kari Freyr McKern · August 2026 · 176 complete annual observations, 1850–2025 (eight nodes) · viability recomputed from raw fields · 1944 viability trough · long-run high Archive & Flow, historically low Hands · low 2025 Helm / negative Helm sigma · mythopoetic paladin overlay · critical reflection on the Dutch delta, polder model & recent institutional pressure · self-contained HTML, figures embedded
Papernew CAMS v1.1 Blind Test — Named Scientific Assessment Kari Freyr McKern · 1 July 2026 · JUNO experiment reveal · 8 societies unmasked: Germany, Norway, Russia, UK, Chile, Poland, Argentina, Australia · 1,201 society-years · 232 inflection points · core formulas validated at machine precision
Papernew Three Great-Power Trajectories Against Their Own Historical Attractors Kari Freyr McKern · June 2026 · China z = +1.37 · Russia z = +0.28 · USA z = −2.73 · Bloc-coordination hypothesis not supported · US viability and coupling both outside twentieth-century envelope · Lore node collapse as endogenous legitimacy crisis · canonical BS data released
Papernew CAMS v1.0.1 — Instrument Test Battery Kari Freyr McKern · June 2026 · Six-part validation: corpus audit, formalism repair, vantage-point bias control, pre-registered 2027–2028 predictions · 2,532 society-years · 25 entities
Papernew Graph-Theoretic Diagnosis of Societal Collapse: CAMS Validation Across 18 Societies Kari Freyr McKern · 10 June 2026 · PCA across 7,880 node-year obs · PC1 = 72.7% variance · 17 crisis fingerprints matched · USA ρ = 0.97, UK ρ = 1.00 · 12 falsifiable predictions registered · HTML
Paper CAMS–CAN Master Reference v1.0 Kari Freyr McKern · April 2026 · Early planning draft (v1.0-RC1) · node/formula groundwork, not the current classifier spec — superseded by JUNO v1.2-Final · PDF
Notebooknew CAMS Framework — Collected Research & Essays Kari Freyr McKern · NotebookLM · Comprehensive collection of drafts, research papers, and geopolitical essays centred on the CAMS framework — societies as thermodynamic, evolutionary coordination systems
Projectnew Epiphenomenon@Trove — Australian Threat Discourse 125 years · Trove + Hansard · Shield Hypertrophy Index · five-scorer ensemble · three articles + data explorer
Papernew The Anxiety Machine — Epiphenomenon@Trove Kari Freyr McKern · 17 May 2026 · v3 revised · CAMNations5 ensemble 1875–2026 · three-regime threat-discourse model · Hands node grievance lead confirmed · Full report v3 (PDF)
Essay Seriesnew The Borrowed Nation Kari Freyr McKern · August 2026 · Five essays on 175 years of Australian strategic dependency · colonial node architecture, foreign-owned Stewards, the Anxiety Machine's Shield Hypertrophy findings, the Flow Paradox, and a counterfactual history of the 2014 China partnership
Papernew Ensemble Validation — The Wright Thesis: Confirmed with Qualifications Kari Freyr McKern · May 2026 · Variance reduction = 1/√N exactly · SNR improves √5× · ensemble mean is optimal · uncertainty measures epistemic ambiguity, not noise · Germany & USA 1880–2026 · Contestation Index · κ-uncertainty bounds · Full paper (PDF)
Papernew CAMCORP5 Ensemble Analysis — Corporate CAMS Assessment 2026 Kari Freyr McKern · 2026 Working Paper · Five-scorer ensemble analysis of Apple, Cargill, Citigroup, Coherent, GE Aerospace & Goldman Sachs · 2000–2026 · PDF
Papernew Epiphenomenon@Trove — Falsification Results v5 Kari Freyr McKern · Formal falsification testing for the Epiphenomenon@Trove study · PDF
Papernew Epiphenomenon@Trove — Final Summary Report Kari Freyr McKern · Complete summary of the Epiphenomenon@Trove experiment — findings, methodology, and conclusions · PDF
Papernew Epiphenomenon@Trove — Companion II: The Cradle and the State Kari Freyr McKern · June 2026 · Fertility discourse, institutional health & the CAMS signal · Australia 1900–2025 · Hands + Archive nexus · three-regime typology extended to demographic domain · PDF
Papernew Human Societies as Complex Adaptive Meta-Systems: Introducing the CAMS Framework Kari Freyr McKern · April 2026 · Five longitudinal datasets · Six falsification criteria · PDF
Papernew A Functional Taxonomy of Human Social Organisation Kari Freyr McKern · May 2026 · Coordination problems, geography & the eight-node architecture · 229 polities · PDF
Papernew A Functional Taxonomy of Human Social Organisation Kari Freyr McKern · May 2026 · Coordination problems, geography & the eight-node architecture · 229 polities · HTML
Papernew Operational Pressure and Symbolic Integration: A Dyadic Scalar for Civilisational Coordination Diagnosis Kari Freyr McKern · CAMS v3.2-R Working Paper v1.1 · May 2026 · Dyad fields 𝒫(t), 𝒴(t), risk index ℛ(t) · Latium Vetus 460 BCE–2010 CE · sensitivity-tested · six falsification criteria
Datanew Civilisation Typing — Open Datasets 45 series · 38 societies · 39,351 records — the CAMS data behind the functional taxonomy · free download
Papernew CAMS and the Extended Evolutionary Synthesis Kari Freyr McKern · April 2026 · Thermodynamically motivated coordination formalism · Phase-space diagnostics · PDF
Papernew Entropy Flows and Collapse Signatures Kari Freyr McKern · May 2026 · Germany 1910–1930, Late Rome 380–450 CE & UK control · Stewards Bond floor breach as early warning · PDF
Paper Why CAMS Is Not Just Another Macro Model
Papernew Coupled Cattle, Tested Kari Freyr McKern · June 2026 · Simulation report on the stampede-as-phase-transition claim · Explosive Kuramoto hysteresis + branching-process contagion · conditional support, open code & data
Paper The Architecture of Civilisation Kari McKern — eight nodes, four metrics, social entropy · Kindle eBook
Papernew The Scale Invariance Experiment Five blinded CAMS time-series — blind inference challenge, download CSVs
Papernew History Doesn't Repeat — It Rhymes A Theory of Societal Pattern, Coordination, and Collapse · Kari Freyr McKern · April 2026
Paper Why Eight Nodes? A Rate-Separation and Coupling Argument Draft — March 2026
Paper Cross-LLM Structural Concordance in CAMS Datasets Reproducible Coordination Signatures Across Independent AI Assessors
Paper The Same Physics, Different Instruments: Where Thermoeconomics Meets CAMS Convergent validation from independent starting points
Historynew CAMS Foundational Conversations — Full Text Primary source dialogues behind the framework's development
Historynew The CAMS Project: A History from the Conversation Record Kari McKern — April 2026 · Full report
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Working builds under active development — not production-ready. Hosted in /test.
Exploratory working documents, Claude artifacts, and comparative analyses. Produced during active research — not peer-reviewed. Kept here as a public working archive.