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CAMS reads societies, firms and civilisations through eight functions of human coordination, and tests what that reading can and cannot recover. Open data, open code, pre-registered tests, published failures.
New to Neural Nations or CAMS? Start here. Three entry points by audience type, a plain-English explainer, and a guide to what
CAMS treats every organised human society as a living coordination system and measures its health the way you
The theoretical case for CAMS: why coordination quality is not the same as structural complexity, and why existing macro models miss the pre-crisis signal.
CAMS models societies as 8-node × 4-metric coordination systems. Full framework documentation: node definitions, formulas, regime classification, validation reports.
Frequently asked questions about CAMS: what it is, how scores are produced, what the version labels mean, what the model can and cannot do, and how to get involved.
How CAMS — an instrument for measuring the health of civilisations — was built, what it has found on settled historical cases, and what it is (and is not) claiming to be.
The book, offered as my personal explanation for this site and its method. Every human organisation is an adaptive-human metasystem, constantly and unstoppably signalling the stress of adaptation into a now common…
Chronological reconstruction of CAMS development from mid-2024 through 2026 — including the epistemological origins, theoretical revisions, and open science positioning.
Transcripts and summaries of the key theoretical conversations that shaped the CAMS framework — epistemological origins and early formalisations.
What CAMS has actually found across 32+ societies, 5,000 years of history, and 39,000+ data records. Plain-language guide to the most significant results, with honest caveats.
What CAMS has shown, what it has not yet proven, its known limits, and what would strengthen or weaken it. An honest account of where the research programme stands.
Out-of-sample prospective predictions for 2027–2028 under the CAMS v1.0-Final graph-theoretic framework. Six nations, registered and certified.
Prospective, falsifiable CAMS/JUNO predictions for the United States, China and Australia in 2027 and 2028, lodged before the outcomes are scored. 32 claims, each with a stated probability and a rule for how it will…
CAMS v3.2-R observed-only diagnostic for 32 societies. 8-node × 4-metric matrix with active pathology signatures, expected epiphenomena, and historical analogue matching. No projection.
The five archetypal pathways through which societies escalate from institutional stress to systemic crisis. Visualised as causal loop diagrams.
Interactive causal loop diagram of the four CAMS failure spirals: R1 Flow-Hands death spiral, R2 rent-seeking trap, R3 Shield capture, R4 institutional amnesia.
Narrative exploration of the four CAMS failure modes — from coordinated decline to institutional capture. A readable guide to societal stress pathways.
A JUNO/CAMS results note on bloc-coordination structure and the isolation of the United States trajectory. China, Russia, and the USA measured against their own twentieth-century attractor bands. All three in…
Applied case studies: CAMS scores for historical and contemporary polities, showing how the framework detects institutional stress before it becomes visible.
CAMS research reports, analytical notebooks, and long-form findings by Kari Freyr McKern.
95,545 CAMS records across 50 societies and 107 historical series. JUNO-1.0 bond formalism covering 53 societies. Freely downloadable. Scored by GPT + Grok + Gemini ensemble. Scoring methodology, validation reports,…
Multi-society, multi-corpus structural analysis under one framework. Each country section pairs a primary discourse corpus with the five-scorer CAMS ensemble to produce a shared, comparable structural reading.
Explore the underlying data: threat discourse frequencies, Australia's structural profile, and WWI/WWII pre-war signals.
Access the Neural Nations CAMS research repository. Dataset downloads, scoring rubrics, and validation reports.
Request access to the full Neural Nations CAMS research repository for academic or practitioner use.
Interactive tools and validated analyses built on the CAMS framework: Advanced Analysis, Failure Modes, Escalation Archetypes, Mindscapes, and more.
The Neural Nations CAMS dashboard — live node values, bond strengths, and system-level metrics for current and historical societies.
Run a live CAMS raw scoring pass on any country, company, or city. Three isolated Kimi passes, ensembled into node-level Coherence, Capacity, Stress, and Abstraction with an uncertainty envelope.
Download the standalone CAMS Scorer for Windows. Score any country, company, or city on your own machine, using your own OpenAI, Grok, Claude, or Kimi account.
Interactive CAMS dashboard. Select any of 45 societies, step through history year by year, and watch node values, bond strengths, and Λ(t) update in real time.
Interactive explorer for the JUNO Unified Dataset: 53 societies, 8 nodes, 47,960 scored node-years. Trajectory charts, thermodynamic phase portraits, and per-node health diagnostics.
Interactive CAMS score interpreter. Enter node values and see V, σ, B_ij, and Λ(t) computed in real time with regime classification.
Select any society and year for a full CAMS diagnostic: attractor basin, activation signals, discourse fingerprints, and pathology flags — computed live from ensemble data.
Two societies, one kernel. Select any two nations and scrub the year slider — V̄, κ, λ₂, phase space, and structural events computed live from the CAMS v3.2-R ensemble.
Real-time CAMS analysis of current civilisational signals — tracking where contemporary polities sit in the CAMS regime space.
Deep-dive CAMS visualisations: node trajectories, ESCH stress profiles, cross-layer bond networks, and Λ(t) regime detection across 38 societies.
Combined CAMS and CAN (Coordination Analysis Network) dashboard for integrated civilisational health assessment.
Interactive 8-node CAMS/JUNO network dynamics explorer. Where is the system under stress, where is it resilient, and what intervention would change the trajectory? Bounded exploratory dynamics, not calibrated prediction.
3D Plotly visualisation of civilisational trajectories as far-from-equilibrium metabolic networks. Isolate, compare, and rotate the attractor landscape of historical polities.
Three-dimensional phase-space rendering of CAMS civilisational attractors. Coherence, Stress, and Abstraction as axes of systemic state.
The CAMS coordination theory: eight functional nodes, four metrics, and the bond network that determines a society
Comparing Seshat Social Complexity PC1 against CAMS Λ(t) for Latium Vetus, CE 460–1800. N=14 century-level matched observations. Pearson r = −0.31, Spearman ρ = 0.00.
In-browser synthetic validation suite — three-scenario stress test with adjustable lag, noise, and series length. Tests Granger causality in CAMS-structured time series.
A working reference for the four CAMS apps in this project — what each metric means, where it comes from, how to read the screens, and which questions the framework can and cannot answer.
Guide Adjust {{ playLabel }} {{ t.label }} {{ year }} Adjust ✕ Play speed {{ o.label }} Phase vertical axis {{ o.label }} Trail persistence{{ adjust.persistence }}% Smoothing{{ adjust.smoothing }} yr Bond lattice {{…
This atlas formalises the morphospace of civilisational types detectable by CAMS. It gives threshold rules, node‑activation profiles, coupling signatures and decision logic so that a blinded case — an organisation,…
Read the distributed cognition of any society. The CAMS Mind Reader pipeline computes activation vectors, JUNO bond matrices, and algebraic connectivity to classify how a society is managing — or mismanaging — its…
Turn a CAMS era-means dataset into a name-masked story packet: data, a ready-to-use AI prompt, reading rules, and a README.
Run CAMS-CAN scoring by hand in a Claude Project, and see the validated reliability evidence behind it. Download the DIY kit — project instructions, schema templates, formulas.
Working papers, data tools, and empirical analyses from the Neural Nations Project (CAMS framework).
Empirical validation of the CAMS framework across 18 societies (10–2026 CE): dimensional collapse, node coupling architectures, and crisis signature matching with 12 falsifiable predictions.
44 societies, 4,541 society-years, 126 coded rupture events. Leave-one-country-out cross-validation reaches AUC 0.740 for deficit crises once coordination transitions are correctly separated out — with South Africa,…
A Retrospective Panel Validation of CAMS Across 44 Societies, 1900–2025, with Robson Gauge Cultural Grounding Results and Cross-System Parsimony Assessment. Full academic paper, August 2026 draft.
44 societies, 125 years, 126 coups/crises/regime transitions. Leave-one-society-out cross-validation reaches AUC 0.740 for deficit crises once coordination transitions are correctly separated out — using only…
The primary panel covers 44 societies, most from 1900 through 2025 (shorter spans where sovereignty began later). CAMS scores are from blinded five-scorer ensemble runs (sets 1–3, 5–7) as specified in the assembly…
PR-GAP-2 tested whether CAMS eight-node coordination scores carry genuine forewarning signal for societal ruptures. The panel covers 44 societies from 1900 to 2025. 126 rupture events — coups, civil wars,…
The JUNO × CAMS recomputation across France (1850–2026), Poland (1875–2026), and Hong Kong (1900–2026) — 3,648 node-years — confirms four theses with permutation p < 10⁻⁴ and a 45/45 sensitivity pass rate. This is…
Three variables were locked before any outcome inspection. The naming convention below resolves the notational collision between node-level Coherence (Cist, used in qist) and aggregate Dream Concentration (Cst,…
A new study tracks eight markers of institutional health across 44 countries and 125 years — and correctly identifies which political crises were genuine structural collapses, and which were simply change.
The JUNO v1.2 bond formula factors completely into a product of node-level weights:
Production specification for JUNO v1.2-Final. Regime classifier, numerical policy, and reference ranges following the 3,002 society-year blind-corpus test of v1.1.
Canonical definition of CAMS Bond Strength (v2.3). Single authoritative specification covering formula, scale, interpretation, worked example, and version history.
Results of the JUNO/CAMS Blind-Analysis Protocol v1.1.1 cognitive-affective extension experiment. 24 societies across 3 blind sets. MRR improved 0.667 → 0.833; calibration gate failed on conflict states.
Open blind-analysis challenge for the JUNO/CAMS framework. Load an anonymised dataset and the protocol prompt into any capable LLM and run the five-stage analysis before the unblinding key is revealed.
CAMS as a possible unification of meaning and metabolism: an eight-pole journey, JUNO v3 signatures, and a separate personality strand. Recognition counts stay behind a closed disclosure.
The CAMS v1.1 blind test validated eight anonymized societies against a mathematical civilizational model. Core formulas — institutional health, bond strength, and cognitive activation — passed at machine precision.…
Full test battery for the CAMS v1.0.1 instrument: corpus verification across 2,532 society-years, JUNO formalism audit, blind scoring control, and pre-registered prospective predictions for 2027–2028.
Testing the CAMS5 distributed-cognition thesis on 229 society-years of institutional history
CAMS ensemble scoring validation: the Wright Thesis confirmed with qualifications. Variance reduction, SNR improvement, contestation index, and κ-uncertainty bounds — Germany and USA 1880–2026.
Adversarial audit and controlled rendering protocol for the Paladin interpretive layer over the JUNO eight-node CAMS field: which claims survive as measurement, which survive only as metaphor, and the discipline that…
Canonical CAMS operators are structurally portable across corporate and national domains but parametrically non-invariant, confirmed by two independent computational audits. The companion Soil-Bond Index (η_soil)…
An open invitation to independently replicate, audit, and try to break CAMS-CAN — the eight-node institutional coordination framework behind Neural Nations.
CAMS is not offered as a finished doctrine to be accepted on authority. Why outright dismissal is not a scientific refutation, what the evidence currently supports, and the decisive tests that would settle it either way.
A formal taxonomy of social coordination architectures grounded in the CAMS framework. Eight recurring coordination problems, 229 polities, eight empirical clusters.
A dyadic scalar for civilisational coordination diagnosis. CAMS v3.2-R Working Paper v1.1, May 2026.
Testing whether CAMS Λ(t) is scale-covariant across polity sizes ranging from city-states to modern nation-states. Methodology and results.
The thermodynamic framing of civilisational dynamics: energy, entropy, and coordination in complex adaptive societies.
A polity can hollow without being hijacked, and can be hijacked without being hollow. These are two distinct failure modes of the civilisational slow-loop — institutional atrophy on one axis, ideological capture on…
Watch a society think. The eight CAMS nodes rendered as sub-brains, each firing on its ESCH activation σ = A·C·(K−S). Play the timeline and see the distributed institutional mind coordinate, desynchronise, and go…
A simulation report testing the stampede-as-phase-transition claim: explosive Kuramoto hysteresis and branching-process contagion models. CAMS working note, June 2026.
Every great power narrates itself as exceptional. CAMS applies one functional lens to every society — including its own — and refuses narrative any exemption from comparison.
A blind, pre-registered, multi-model test of CAMS on twenty ancient society-windows: 22 scoring passes from Claude, Grok and GPT. Four findings held across all three models; the disagreements show what each model…
The failures we recognise in families and offices — the boss who stops taking calls, the family that forgets — turn up at national scale too. Interim results: six frozen CAMS signatures on 37 JUNO v3 societies…
The authoritative definitions of the four CAMS dimensions (Coherence, Capacity, Stress, Abstraction), Node Value, and the derived quantities computed from them.
The master essay for the state of the CAMS framework, 8 November 2026: The Human Metasystem, its supporting document, and links to the latest findings, including the November 2026 independent AI replication round.
A working essay reading states as groups adapted to their settings: river valley, coast, continent and steppe. Through the eight CAMS functions it explains why every bloc is sincere and every bloc projects, and why…
Global civilisational stress after 2000 in the JUNO v3 record: a common-factor analysis. Kari McKern, ComplexityWorkz, 23 October 2026.
Verification and findings for the CAMS Human–AI Scientific Record package of 30 October 2026: integrity checks, recomputed blind-rater agreement, and the USA 1900–2026 Q series. Kari McKern, ComplexityWorkz.
CAMS made 15 sealed predictions about China and seven Chinese companies for 2021–2024 before any scoring. Six passed, nine failed, and the model
An old experiment revisited: the Functional Attractor Coherence study (Cambodia, Thailand, Laos, Blind Sets 1–6 and a named-country check) re-run on the combined JUNO dataset of 53 societies, 9 November 2026.
Every CAMS report, artefact and dataset on Neural Nations assembled by nation — country studies, mood reports, newsletter issues, external analyses and downloadable data.
What happens to a republic when the institution that used to do its talking can no longer talk — and the institution that used to do its protecting becomes the only thing still working. CAMS analysis of the USA…
Ten thinkers whose published work illuminates, anticipates, or contests the Empty Pulpit analysis — Wolin, Schmitt, Arendt, Lasch, Edelman, Streeck, Gurri, Turchin, Tainter, Mearsheimer.
Columbo, Dupin, Holmes, and Marple stress-test the six loops of the Empty Pulpit Map — decisionist spiral, praetorian self-reinforcement, archive drawdown, polarisation engine, and the conditional renewal path.…
Four structurally distinct trajectories the CAMS geometry permits from the present empty-pulpit configuration. CAMS v3.2 ensemble analysis — 2026–2036 scenarios.
A 30-year panel (1996–2025) testing whether CAMS structural stress leads public trust collapse. CAMS Stress leads Gallup and Pew legitimacy measures by 2–3 years — the exact opposite of the fiscal (Study 1) finding.
An illustrated CAMS analysis of how institutional disaffection became political mobilisation in the United States, from the pre-GFC period through Trump’s 2016 and 2024 election victories. 16 charts from annual…
Study 1 (Interest Burden) found that CAMS does not lead the fiscal stress cycle — it is fiscal pressure that precedes CAMS structural response by roughly three years. The direction of causality pointed away from the…
The core claim of the US oligarchic-capture analysis is that a merchant-financier coalition has progressively locked in fiscal structures that favour asset-holders, increasing background systemic stress even when…
How the United Kingdom became the world
Father Brown, Cordelia Gray, Poirot, and Wimsey stress-test the six loops of the Soft Landing Map — the Continuity Engine, the Absorption Trap, the Comfort Blindfold, and the hard question of what Reform, Your Party,…
Four structurally distinct trajectories for the UK 2026–2036: The Absorption Holds, The Populist Capture, The Territorial Rupture, and The Renewal Bypass. Tested against the Reform surge, Your Party, and Scottish…
How Norway turned the poorest periphery of Europe into one of the most coherent societies in the modern record — and the single dependency the story now has to survive. CAMS v3.2, 1880–2026.
A detective panel stress-tests the seven loops of the Norway CAMS map — Fell, Morse, Marple, and Warshawski interrogate the Lore thesis, the fund
Four structurally distinct trajectories for Norway 2026–2036: Orderly Transition, Deferred Transition, Disorderly Shock, and the Exemplary Transition. Tested against the $2.2T fund, the Progress Party surge, and Norway
Narrative essay tracing New Zealand
Interactive causal loop diagram of New Zealand
How West Germany turned the hardest starting conditions in modern history into the most stable democracy in Europe — and what it cost to do so
© 2026 Kari McKern — Neural Nations CAMS Research. Built as open science — contributions & forks welcome at KaliBond/wintermute.
The first thing to admit is the comfort. Not the abundance — that has been thinning for a decade, and anyone with eyes can see the squeeze in the grocery aisles and the housing pages — but the comfort of not having…
Argentina has not been failing. It has been freezing. A CAMS v3.2-R ensemble analysis of Argentina
How Australia learned to profit from the fire while forgetting it owned the house. A systemic narrative on Australia
Poirot, Salander, Marple, and Holmes interrogate the loop structure of the Burning House Economy map. The fossil rent lock, the enclave transition trap, and the Stewards junction.
A critically contextualised CAMS v1.2 analysis of the Netherlands, covering ecology, social organisation, history, diagnostic metrics, and a mythopoetic paladin overlay.
Cross-references the Global Slavery Index 2023 with JUNO v1.2-Final structural data across 36 societies to identify which CAMS node configurations generate, sustain, or suppress coerced labour — plus a four-path…
A CAMS coordination-diagnostic analysis of four AI industry signals: Kimi K3, OpenAI finances, household electricity bills, and S&P 500 concentration.
A library of CAMS causal-loop diagrams implemented on Gene Bellinger
Claude-generated Vision–Affect and Mythic Attractor reports for national mood analysis. France and Norway live. Pipeline open.
National Mood, Vision‑Affect & Mythic Attractor Report — 2024–2026
National Mood, Vision–Affect & Mythic Attractor Report — 2024–2026
National Mood, Vision‑Affect & Mythic Attractor Report — 2024–2026
National Mood, Vision–Affect & Mythic Attractor Report — 2023–2025
National Mood, Vision‑Affect & Mythic Attractor Report — 2024–2026
National Mood, Vision‑Affect & Mythic Attractor Report — 2024–2026
Subscribe to the Neural Nations newsletter. Research updates, new dataset releases, and plain-language explainers on civilisational complexity.
Issue #1: How CAMS emerged from a question about geopolitics and became a framework for reading civilisational dynamics as coordination systems.
Issue #2: On the epistemological status of social science and why institutional analysis requires a different kind of model.
Issue #3: The thermodynamic and information-theoretic foundations of CAMS — why societies can be modelled as far-from-equilibrium systems.
Issue #4: How stress propagates through institutional networks — the CAMS model of cascade failure and systemic crisis.
Issue #5: Two modes of societal decision-making — fast reactive and slow deliberative — and how CAMS tracks the balance between them.
Issue #6: CAMS analysis of South Africa 1990–2024 — institutional stress accumulation, coordination failure, and the signals of state fragility.
Issue #7: Where CAMS stands as a scientific programme — validation results, open questions, and the research agenda for 2026.
Issue #8: A hidden signal in the CAMS data — cognitive-affective dissociation precedes societal collapse. Kimi, Claude, and GPT analyse the XXU (USA) dataset.
Issue #9: Why eight nodes were enough — the origin story of the CAMS framework, from a GPT conversation about nuclear indeterminacy to a minimal, testable anatomy of civilisation.
Issue #10: Blind CAMS analysis of corporations and institutions — MarkerQ (Qantas), MarkerE (Enron), NVIDIA, and SpaceX. The same diagonal constraint manifold appears across all organisational types.
Issue #11: CAMS analysis of Iran 1900–2025. A civilisational state, not a failing modern nation. Kimi, Gemini, Grok, Perplexity, Claude, and GPT — six platforms, one dataset, surprising convergence.
Issue #12: Blind CAMS analysis of
Issue #13: Three Nordic architectures, one structural question — how Denmark, Norway, and Sweden built coordination infrastructure before economic expansion, and what that means for the rest of us.
Issue #14: DeepSeek, Kimi, and Claude independently diagnose Australia
Issue #15: The US–Iran confrontation is a systems conflict, not merely a nuclear dispute. CAMS reveals a mode mismatch — Ψ-dominant Iran versus a Φ-overloaded US Helm — and traces the path dependency running from…
Issue #16: CAMS as an instrument of observation — not a complete theory of civilisation, but a systematic way of seeing structural patterns where narrative alone cannot reach. Illustrated with the USA at the moment…
Issue #17: CAMS v2.3 release. A formal specification of the 8×4 state matrix, coordination phase space, and failure mode taxonomy — plus four new analytical tools: dDIG, Dyad Field, Combined Insights, and Phase-Space…
Issue #18: 32+ societies, 30,856 records, and a blind test revealing five archetypes — from corporate fraud collapse to 425 years of indigenous memory resilience — using the same mathematics.
Issue #19: The CAMS Interpreter — load a society
Issue #20: Five structurally diverse societies, labels stripped, dates jittered, Gaussian noise added. Can CAMS recover the structural personality from raw numbers alone? 92% structural grounding, 1/5 exact…
Issue #21: How CAMS was born — a Socratic dialogue with GPT-4, from slime moulds and superorganisms to the Sybond Hypothesis. The laboratory notebook of an idea, preserved in its original heat.
Issue #22: The April 2026 platform update — CAMS Explorer, Zeitgeist Detector, Interpreter, Advanced Analysis Dashboard, Mindscapes, and Granger Causality Validator. The instruments for studying societies as complex…
Issue #23: Two papers consolidate CAMS — the first as a formal thermodynamic-institutional method, the second within the Extended Evolutionary Synthesis. The German case demonstrates how CAMS distinguishes genuine…
Issue #24: Ensemble sampling yields 75–90% hindcast accuracy. Mindscapes reports generated with zero editorial input. The CAMS Telescope delivers compact structural dossiers — typewriter-style, one society, one year,…
Issue #25: Seven nations tested through Perplexity, Kimi, and Gemini independently. All three converged on identical structural diagnoses. Signal-to-noise above 8:1. Kimi
Issue #28: When does Australia sense enemies? Trove (55M documents, 1900–1955) and Hansard (2006–2025) crossed with CAMS structural scores. Three regimes — Prosperity Ideology, Stress Projection, Event Response. The…
Issue #29: CAMS begins not with moral categories, but with coordination. Two epistemological breaks, eight nodes as functional grammar, value-location not value-neutrality — and the deepest claim: civilisation is an…
Issue #30: A profile of CAMS and the intellectual journey behind it — from a Socratic frustration with sophistry, through the insight that a polity is a complex adaptive system and unit of selection, to an eight-node…
Issue #31: Every productive system must dispose of high-entropy outputs somewhere. For two centuries of industrial civilisation, that somewhere has been the atmosphere, water table, and landscape. A thermodynamic…
Issue #32: A principal component analysis of 19,008 CAMS data rows across 28 civilisations reveals a single dominant axis — 77.5% of all variance — running from organised structural health to dissipative collapse.…
A five-essay CAMS series on Australian strategic dependency: colonial-era node architecture, foreign ownership of the Stewards node, the domestic origins of China-threat discourse, the Flow Paradox, and a…
Essay One: Why Australia
Essay Two: From the squattocracy to Rio Tinto and BHP, Australia
Essay Three: 105 years of Trove and Hansard data show Australia
Essay Four: China receives 63% of Australia
Essay Five: A disciplined counterfactual history — what if Australia had built the 2014 Comprehensive Strategic Partnership as the governing framework for its China relationship, instead of the Five Eyes escalation…
A structural analysis of Australian threat discourse, institutional coherence, and civilisational stress across 125 years — using the Complex Adaptive Model System (CAMS) and the National Library of Australia's…
How Australia learned to need a threat — and why the machinery never stops running.
Reading structural collapse signals as a contemporary analyst would have — with no foreknowledge of what was coming.
What 125 years of Australian newspapers and two decades of parliamentary Hansard reveal about why we talk about what we talk about — and when
Ongoing development log for the CAMS framework. Results, revisions, blind tests, theoretical extensions, and validation milestones. Plain language throughout.
Every page on Neural Nations in one place — tools, datasets, papers, country studies, maps and series — grouped by topic and searchable.
Complete index of CAMS research artefacts: visualisations, datasets, interactive tools, and analytical reports.
Deep conceptual explainer for the CAMS framework — for researchers and practitioners who want to understand the theoretical foundations.
Kari McKern — researcher, former public servant, IT specialist, and geopolitical analyst. Creator of CAMS. Based in Sydney, Australia.
Research collaboration, dataset access, peer review, and practitioner enquiries. Three pathways: Scholar, Practitioner, and General Public.
Every published dataset file, hosted on GitHub. See Datasets for scoring methods and documentation.
The rebuilt JUNO v3 corpus used for the organisational-pathology signatures.
The unified JUNO dataset; the primary dataset named by the prospective registers.
Era-mean Cog, Aff, sigma and rank for the 56-era core panel (Russia, Australia, USA).
Era means for the 51-era extension panel (China, UK, Norway).
Era means for the 19-era sparse-input Denmark control.
Input data, code and results for the 32 claims lodged at Zenodo (10.5281/zenodo.24046639).
Canada · 1850–2026 · 264 records · North America
Canada · 1850–2026 · 264 records · scorer envelope · North America
Canada · 1900–1905 · 48 records · North America
USA · 1790–2023 · 960 records · North America
USA · 1790–2025 · 1,248 records · North America
USA · 1790–2025 · 1,248 records · North America
USA · 1790–2025 · 1,248 records · North America
USA · 1900–2026 · 1,016 records · North America
USA · 1996–2026 · 248 records · North America
Argentina · 1950–2026 · 616 records · South America
Argentina · 1950–2026 · 616 records · South America
Argentina · 1950–2026 · 616 records · South America
Argentina · 1950–2026 · 616 records · scorer envelope · South America
Argentina · 1950–2026 · 616 records · South America
Denmark · 1752–2025 · 920 records · Europe
England · 1750–1900 · 1,224 records · Europe
France · 1785–2024 · 400 records · Europe
France · 1785–2024 · 400 records · Europe
France · 1785–2024 · 400 records · Europe
France · 1800–1830 · 248 records · Europe
France · 1800–1830 · 248 records · Europe
France · 1850–2026 · 1,416 records · Europe
France · 1850–2026 · 1,416 records · scorer envelope · Europe
France · 1900–2026 · 1,016 records · Europe
Germany · 1750–2025 · 2,199 records · Europe
Germany · 1880–2026 · 1,176 records · Europe
Germany · 1880–2026 · 1,176 records · scorer envelope · Europe
Germany · 1900–2026 · 1,016 records · Europe
Italy · 1900–2024 · 1,080 records · Europe
Italy · 1900–2024 · 1,080 records · Europe
Italy · 1850–2026 · 1,416 records · Europe
Italy · 1850–2026 · 1,416 records · scorer envelope · Europe
Netherlands · 1750–2024 · 440 records · Europe
Netherlands · 1850–2026 · 1,416 records · Europe
Netherlands · 1850–2026 · 1,416 records · scorer envelope · Europe
Norway · 1880–2026 · 1,176 records · Europe
Norway · 1880–2026 · 1,176 records · scorer envelope · Europe
Russia · 1800–1830 · 248 records · Europe
Russia · 1800–2026 · 1,816 records · Europe
Russia · 1800–2026 · 1,816 records · scorer envelope · Europe
Russia · 1900–2025 · 1,208 records · Europe
Spain · 1800–1830 · 248 records · Europe
Sweden · 1850–2026 · 152 records · Europe
Sweden · 1850–2026 · 152 records · scorer envelope · Europe
Australia · 1875–2026 · 1,216 records · Asia-Pacific
Australia · 1875–2026 · 1,216 records · scorer envelope · Asia-Pacific
Australia · 1895–2026 · 1,055 records · Asia-Pacific
Australia · 1900–2024 · 984 records · Asia-Pacific
Australia · 1996–2026 · 248 records · Asia-Pacific
China · 1800–2025 · 1,808 records · Asia-Pacific
China · 1800–2025 · 1,808 records · scorer envelope · Asia-Pacific
China · 1850–2026 · 152 records · Asia-Pacific
China · 1850–2026 · 152 records · scorer envelope · Asia-Pacific
China · 1900–2026 · 1,016 records · Asia-Pacific
India · 1950–2024 · 592 records · Asia-Pacific
Indigenous Australia · 1600–2025 · 144 records · Asia-Pacific
Indonesia · 1941–2025 · 680 records · Asia-Pacific
Japan · 1850–2025 · 1,632 records · Asia-Pacific
Japan · 1850–2026 · 1,416 records · Asia-Pacific
Japan · 1850–2026 · 1,416 records · scorer envelope · Asia-Pacific
Pakistan · 1947–2025 · 642 records · Asia-Pacific
Singapore · 1935–2025 · 744 records · Asia-Pacific
Thailand · 1850–2025 · 1,486 records · Asia-Pacific
Thailand · 1850–2025 · 288 records · Asia-Pacific
Thailand · 1850–2025 · 288 records · scorer envelope · Asia-Pacific
Afghanistan · 1900–2025 · 1,032 records · Middle East
Iran · 1790–2025 · 2,168 records · Middle East
Iran · 1875–2026 · 1,216 records · Middle East
Iran · 1875–2026 · 1,216 records · scorer envelope · Middle East
Iran · 1900–2025 · 920 records · Middle East
Iraq · 3–2025 · 1,202 records · Middle East
Israel · 1946–2025 · 664 records · Middle East
Lebanon · 1943–2025 · 664 records · Middle East
Syria · 1893–2025 · 943 records · Middle East
Latium Vetus · 460–2010 · 632 records · Historical
Rome · 10–450 · 360 records · Historical
SpaceX · 2006–2026 · 168 records · Non-State
WorldCom · 1990–2001 · 96 records · Global
Cambodia · 1850–2026 · 1,416 records · Other
Cambodia · 1850–2026 · 1,416 records · scorer envelope · Other
Chile · 1875–2026 · 1,216 records · Other
Chile · 1875–2026 · 1,216 records · scorer envelope · Other
Democratic Republic of the Congo · 1960–2026 · 536 records · Other
Democratic Republic of the Congo · 1960–2026 · 536 records · scorer envelope · Other
Egypt · 1952–2026 · 600 records · Other
Egypt · 1952–2026 · 600 records · scorer envelope · Other
Ethiopia · 1960–2026 · 536 records · Other
Ethiopia · 1960–2026 · 536 records · scorer envelope · Other
Greece · 1875–2026 · 1,216 records · Other
Greece · 1875–2026 · 1,216 records · scorer envelope · Other
Hong Kong · 1900–2015 · 952 records · Other
Hong Kong · 1900–2015 · 952 records · Other
Laos · 1875–2026 · 1,216 records · Other
Laos · 1875–2026 · 1,216 records · scorer envelope · Other
Latvia · 1901–2025 · 1,099 records · Other
Mauritania · 1960–2026 · 536 records · Other
Mauritania · 1960–2026 · 536 records · scorer envelope · Other
Mongolia · 1850–2026 · 1,416 records · Other
Mongolia · 1850–2026 · 1,416 records · scorer envelope · Other
New Zealand · 1875–2026 · 1,216 records · Other
New Zealand · 1875–2026 · 1,216 records · scorer envelope · Other
New Zealand · 1900–2026 · 1,016 records · Other
New Zealand · 1900–2026 · 1,016 records · Other
Nigeria · 1960–2026 · 536 records · Other
Nigeria · 1960–2026 · 536 records · scorer envelope · Other
Philippines · 1880–2016 · 1,191 records · Other
Poland · 1875–2026 · 1,216 records · Other
Poland · 1875–2026 · 1,216 records · scorer envelope · Other
Roman Empire · 5–425 · 672 records · Other
Saudi Arabia · 1918–2025 · 856 records · Other
United Kingdom · 1880–2026 · 1,176 records · Other
United Kingdom · 1880–2026 · 1,176 records · scorer envelope · Other
1875–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · with Node Value & Bond Strength
1875–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
1900–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · 5-year snapshots · with Node Value & Bond Strength
1900–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
1875–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · 5-year snapshots · with Node Value & Bond Strength
1875–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
1875–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
1875–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · 5-year snapshots · with Node Value & Bond Strength
1875–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
1875–2026 · 5-Agent Ensemble · 5-year snapshots · with Node Value & Bond Strength
1875–2026 · inter-rater SD per node per year · with V_range
1785–2024 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1750–2024 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1752–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1881–2025 · GEM scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1850–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1900–2015 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1935–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1850–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1941–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1950–2024 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1947–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1918–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1970–2026 · GEM scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
5-Agent Ensemble Mean · C, K, S, A, V, BS
Inter-rater SD per node per year
1900–2025 · C, K, S, A, V · bond strength unavailable
1900–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1946–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1943–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1893–2024 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1980–2025 · Single-scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1970–2025 · GEM scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1880–2025 · Grok scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
1880–2025 · GEM scorer · C, K, S, A, V, BS
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